U.S. Treasury curve steepener Loading... : Investor Sentiment and Bull/Bear Views
Loading chart...
Top Calls
No data yet
Price change since each call, adjusted for long/short direction. Results calculated:
Feed
22:01
Sep 17
Sep 17
Expect Treasury curve to steepen
The Fed signalled policy is not restrictive and may hike again, but UBS thinks the curve still prices too much tightening. Supply shocks drove inflation higher this year and should fade, so underlying inflation is not a problem. With monetary policy expectations the main driver, UBS expects more Treasury curve steepening, with the long end anchored at a high level.
MED
07:00
Aug 05
Aug 05
Yield curve steepener for 6–12 months.
Fed Chair Warsh intentionally held rates steady to steepen the yield curve, letting the long end sell off. This tightens financial conditions immediately and allows future short-rate cuts. The curve should keep steepening for 6–12 months, with Fed funds declining to around 3% while long-end yields stay elevated.
HIGH
21:25
Feb 06
Feb 06
Favor U.S. Treasury curve steepener.
The Warsh nomination is a known, mainstream pick and the initial market reaction is consistent with orthodox Fed policy. Investors are likely to give the benefit of the doubt and lean into Fed easing over time, which is consistent with a steeper U.S. Treasury curve for now.
MED
17:09
Feb 02
Feb 02
Warsh Fed may steepen yield curve
A Warsh-led Fed may rely less on forward guidance, forcing markets to adjust without the Fed constantly signaling its path. Less communication could support a steeper U.S. Treasury curve and higher rates volatility.
MED
18:46
Jan 23
Jan 23
Expect bull steepening in Treasuries
A productivity revolution and strong growth should allow the Fed to deliver more rate cuts, pushing front-end yields lower and producing a bull steepener. He does not expect a huge move, but sees front-end yields and the curve moving downward.
HIGH
12:28
Jan 15
Jan 15
Expect global yield curve steepening.
She expects curve steepening globally, from Japan to Europe and the U.S., because high fiscal debt and fiscal dominance are lifting long-end risk premiums while fixed-income volatility remains compressed. U.S. fiscal policy is particularly prominent in driving this steepening bias.
HIGH
00:22
Jan 15
Jan 15
Fed dovish tilt favors steeper curve.
A more dovish Fed chair transition and likely rate cuts could modestly steepen the Treasury curve, even as the long end stays around current levels; he recommends positioning for a steeper curve.
MED
23:57
Jan 06
Jan 06
Fed independence risk steepens curve.
Fed independence is the top risk. If the Fed is perceived as losing independence, markets will worry inflation gets out of hand. If the Fed does what President Trump wants, the outcome would be higher inflation, higher inflation expectations, a steeper curve, higher bond yields, and more market stress. The incoming chair will have a difficult line to walk.
HIGH
About U.S. Treasury curve steepener Investor Commentary
Across the available history and selected sources, Buzzberg tracks U.S. Treasury curve steepener across 3 sources: 8 bullish vs 0 bearish calls from 7 authors. Historical directional balance: 100% = 100 × (bullish − bearish) / all deduplicated idea records, including other directions. This is neither a probability of a price rise nor the share of bullish authors. 8 total trade ideas tracked. Past 7 days, before deduplication: 1 bullish. Latest voices: Phoebe White, Jared Dillian, Andrew Sheets.